The outlook for 2025

Rising bond yields will be the surprise, ending the largest credit bubble in history. Central banks will probably inflate in a vain attempt to rescue financial markets and the economy.

The background

It has been a time of political change, driven by electoral discontent of incumbent administrations. Thus, it was that Javier Milei almost exactly a year ago ousted the corrupt socialistic administration in Argentina, following Giorgia Meloni’s election in Italy. That was two for the right. In Britain, the Conservatives were ousted by a highly socialist Labour Party masquerading as moderates. In the USA, Trump trounced Harris, who had inherited the leftist administration of a bumbling Biden. On balance and given the US’s size, it has been a marginal win for the capitalists over the socialists which might be expected to lead to a better world.

However, this is unlikely to be the case.