This video explains in simple terms what is driving markets. An imploding credit bubble and trade tariffs drove Wall Street down in 1929—32. This time is even more scary.
I remember my parents talking about the depression. People taking cuts in salary, losing jobs…ghastly stuff at the time but I suppose the currency wasn’t being devalued in quite the same way. Very interesting interview, as usual, concentrates the mind!
I don't think it's clear yet if Trumps tariffs = Smoot Hawley. It may be or may not. Everyone talks about the Depression and there is a persistent popular narrative about it that basically sums up to FDR saved us.
At the time of SH, the US was one of the largest exporters in the world. Today the US, is without a doubt, the largest importer in the world.
There is a persistent sense in the US that the middle class is being rapidly destroyed by the transfer of production overseas.
Everyone jumps up and down about tariffs but nobody seriously tries to explain what it's purposes are. The assumption is that Trump is incoherent and stupid.
Trump wants to bring production home as part of a plan to reinvigorate the working middle class. At the same time he wants to retain USD reserve status. Those 2 goals are in conflict. USD reserve status requires large trade deficits and large trade deficits requires movement of production out of the US. Perhaps the gamble is that we can retain reserve status, if not forever, then for long enough to complete the transition. This may be a good bet or bad bet. We wont know for many months or years.
If it's a bad bet, then tariffs perhaps bring an end to the unsustainable sooner rather than later. I don't see that as a bad thing. If it's a good bet, then maybe we muddle through.
The alternative to the Trump plan seems to be to do nothing and keep on with what we already know is broken.
The only beef I have with the Trump experiment is that it seems blazingly obvious to me that an accommodation with Russia: giving them what they want in Ukraine, lifting sanctions and increasing trade with Russia would be a key positive for achieving what Trump wants domestically. The problem is there is a strong, non-partisan "MORE WAR" camp in both parties. Trump is maybe part of this camp or not, but his policy freedom is constrained by this sentiment in congress. If he settles with the Russians he alienates support he needs in congress. If he doesnt settle with Russia he drastically lessons the likely hood of success for his economic/social agenda.
In the last 4 weeks, in my little town, gasoline prices have increased 40 cents/gallon. Thats all down to "MORE WAR" policies, like more sanctions on Russian oil, threats of war with Iran etc.
I read the article at the end of the link. I do read Armstrong with some caution, but not dismissively. This article resonates with me because I've recently been reading more broadly and critically about the 20's and 30's. I largely agree with what Armstrong is saying. What we think we know about the "Depression" is largely propaganda wrapped up in the "FDR Saved Us" myth.
Along with SH another part of the depression narrative is that the Gold Standard contributed to the depression. There is a lot of evidence that this too is part of the propaganda legacy. Of course I don't know, I only know what I read about it and everything we read has an axe of some kind to grind. The counter argument to the "the gold straightjacket did it" narrative - which conveniently also serves the bankers/FED/Governments wish to escape guidance from Gold was that US gold reserves were growing and yet the FED declined to expand the money supply...
So I'm back to the notion that all the "lessons" supposedly illustrated by the 20's and 30's cannot be trusted without deep and skeptical examination.
With all that said, I tend to agree with you: something is up, with some pain ahead.
People are drunk on debt, the rising price of Gold should help the drunk on debt world to sober up. The side effects of dent or like the side is like jaundice and liver failure to the alcoholic. We've berm so drunk on dent, we've blacked out on Gold.
With Dent going on about the coming PM price crash for years/decades and Oliver going on about silver gonna skyrocket to new highs for years/decades, they would make the perfect pair!
I fully agree with you about ' Harry ' - but I actually rather think that you'll be proven wrong in your feelings about Michael Oliver , and feel that this will come to pass within the next 3 - 12 x months .
4 years ago, Oliver said that gold was gonna reach $8000 by late "this year" (4 years ago) or early "next year" (3 years ago) and silver 200$ - see following youtube video from 14.10 onwards
Now four years later silver is struggling to stay above 30$. Were you not confusing Michael Oliver with Jamie Oliver. Man that Lympstone weed must be good.
Appreciate what you're saying and how you're factually correct per that 4 x year old forecast during that M.O's interview with Tom ..etc .
I am equally as pissed off and frustrated - having been on the clear assumption ( according to countless big name pundits ) that Silver and to a lesser extent Gold were heading skywards back around 2015 time and at least every other year since - But any number of them have qualified there predictions somewhat by saying that is not a question of ' If ' but ' When '
the systemic tectonic plates finally converge and we reach lift off - and that they'd learned through past experience and a level of unbelievable crookery and manipulation by the usual suspects - how it had turned out to be pretty much impossible to time any of this . I'm still of the opinion and hopeful that this whole shit-show is so far gone and way beyond salvation that we are fast approaching the snowflake hitting the snow-pack moment which sends the whole lot in an avalanche down the pan . This has got to be pretty soon & I'm looking forward to our collective day in the sun .
BTW - Never smoked weed or even a single cigarette at Lympstone or anywhere else - but guilty of many Piss Up's in various pub's around Woodbury Common .
No! I have been proven right. Oliver has been SEVERELY incorrect many times in his predictions. I watch the silver price like a hawk and have closely looked at all the known "experts" interviews including his on silver over the years. I can tell you he has been speaking out of his gearbox. Go look at them for yourself! - then comment. I am talking about the provable past.
But hey, yeah one day in the future he is gonna be spot on sunshine! Broken clock, the only difference between him and dirty Harry is that Harry's clock is digital, only right once a day!
I have a present for you if you care Alasdair. It seems you have no proper Logo for Macleod Finance. I designed one for you. There is no option here to send an attachment. If you are interested let me know how i can send the file to you. Maybe you like it, and its free!
Lead May25 silver future on Comex has gone into backwardation in this sell off - can you explain why this happens and the significance of it being able to stay below spot for several trading sessions?
I love Alastair’s answers. He puts brains (intelligence) behind my reasoning. He’s a delight to listen to.
This interview would have been better if the young man who aired it would not repeat the same thing that Alasdair and Andy are saying.
Agreed .
I remember my parents talking about the depression. People taking cuts in salary, losing jobs…ghastly stuff at the time but I suppose the currency wasn’t being devalued in quite the same way. Very interesting interview, as usual, concentrates the mind!
At that time and until ' FDR ' did the bidding of the money-powers , the USD was still
backed by Gold - in the citizenry's hands .
I don't think it's clear yet if Trumps tariffs = Smoot Hawley. It may be or may not. Everyone talks about the Depression and there is a persistent popular narrative about it that basically sums up to FDR saved us.
At the time of SH, the US was one of the largest exporters in the world. Today the US, is without a doubt, the largest importer in the world.
There is a persistent sense in the US that the middle class is being rapidly destroyed by the transfer of production overseas.
Everyone jumps up and down about tariffs but nobody seriously tries to explain what it's purposes are. The assumption is that Trump is incoherent and stupid.
Trump wants to bring production home as part of a plan to reinvigorate the working middle class. At the same time he wants to retain USD reserve status. Those 2 goals are in conflict. USD reserve status requires large trade deficits and large trade deficits requires movement of production out of the US. Perhaps the gamble is that we can retain reserve status, if not forever, then for long enough to complete the transition. This may be a good bet or bad bet. We wont know for many months or years.
If it's a bad bet, then tariffs perhaps bring an end to the unsustainable sooner rather than later. I don't see that as a bad thing. If it's a good bet, then maybe we muddle through.
The alternative to the Trump plan seems to be to do nothing and keep on with what we already know is broken.
The only beef I have with the Trump experiment is that it seems blazingly obvious to me that an accommodation with Russia: giving them what they want in Ukraine, lifting sanctions and increasing trade with Russia would be a key positive for achieving what Trump wants domestically. The problem is there is a strong, non-partisan "MORE WAR" camp in both parties. Trump is maybe part of this camp or not, but his policy freedom is constrained by this sentiment in congress. If he settles with the Russians he alienates support he needs in congress. If he doesnt settle with Russia he drastically lessons the likely hood of success for his economic/social agenda.
In the last 4 weeks, in my little town, gasoline prices have increased 40 cents/gallon. Thats all down to "MORE WAR" policies, like more sanctions on Russian oil, threats of war with Iran etc.
After reading this: https://www.theburningplatform.com/2025/04/06/why-is-trump-using-tariffs-the-truth-that-has-misled-the-world-on-tariffs/ I am now really dazed and confused. All I can say is that with or without tariffs, the sh1t is about to hit the turbine.
I read the article at the end of the link. I do read Armstrong with some caution, but not dismissively. This article resonates with me because I've recently been reading more broadly and critically about the 20's and 30's. I largely agree with what Armstrong is saying. What we think we know about the "Depression" is largely propaganda wrapped up in the "FDR Saved Us" myth.
Along with SH another part of the depression narrative is that the Gold Standard contributed to the depression. There is a lot of evidence that this too is part of the propaganda legacy. Of course I don't know, I only know what I read about it and everything we read has an axe of some kind to grind. The counter argument to the "the gold straightjacket did it" narrative - which conveniently also serves the bankers/FED/Governments wish to escape guidance from Gold was that US gold reserves were growing and yet the FED declined to expand the money supply...
So I'm back to the notion that all the "lessons" supposedly illustrated by the 20's and 30's cannot be trusted without deep and skeptical examination.
With all that said, I tend to agree with you: something is up, with some pain ahead.
Yeah thanks for the reminder - I try to read Armstrong with caution!
Don't read that stuff. It will give you a headache :-)
I'll take your advice on this one.
People are drunk on debt, the rising price of Gold should help the drunk on debt world to sober up. The side effects of dent or like the side is like jaundice and liver failure to the alcoholic. We've berm so drunk on dent, we've blacked out on Gold.
dent? What? broken clock Harry who claimed gold was gonna crash to 800$? LOL
I was wondering where the ' Dent ' bit came in & likewise tried to link this
with ' Hapless Harry ' .
With Dent going on about the coming PM price crash for years/decades and Oliver going on about silver gonna skyrocket to new highs for years/decades, they would make the perfect pair!
I fully agree with you about ' Harry ' - but I actually rather think that you'll be proven wrong in your feelings about Michael Oliver , and feel that this will come to pass within the next 3 - 12 x months .
They are NOT feelings - they are FACT.
4 years ago, Oliver said that gold was gonna reach $8000 by late "this year" (4 years ago) or early "next year" (3 years ago) and silver 200$ - see following youtube video from 14.10 onwards
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vz_DHF0FR3Y
Now four years later silver is struggling to stay above 30$. Were you not confusing Michael Oliver with Jamie Oliver. Man that Lympstone weed must be good.
Appreciate what you're saying and how you're factually correct per that 4 x year old forecast during that M.O's interview with Tom ..etc .
I am equally as pissed off and frustrated - having been on the clear assumption ( according to countless big name pundits ) that Silver and to a lesser extent Gold were heading skywards back around 2015 time and at least every other year since - But any number of them have qualified there predictions somewhat by saying that is not a question of ' If ' but ' When '
the systemic tectonic plates finally converge and we reach lift off - and that they'd learned through past experience and a level of unbelievable crookery and manipulation by the usual suspects - how it had turned out to be pretty much impossible to time any of this . I'm still of the opinion and hopeful that this whole shit-show is so far gone and way beyond salvation that we are fast approaching the snowflake hitting the snow-pack moment which sends the whole lot in an avalanche down the pan . This has got to be pretty soon & I'm looking forward to our collective day in the sun .
BTW - Never smoked weed or even a single cigarette at Lympstone or anywhere else - but guilty of many Piss Up's in various pub's around Woodbury Common .
No! I have been proven right. Oliver has been SEVERELY incorrect many times in his predictions. I watch the silver price like a hawk and have closely looked at all the known "experts" interviews including his on silver over the years. I can tell you he has been speaking out of his gearbox. Go look at them for yourself! - then comment. I am talking about the provable past.
But hey, yeah one day in the future he is gonna be spot on sunshine! Broken clock, the only difference between him and dirty Harry is that Harry's clock is digital, only right once a day!
Fair Enough
I have a present for you if you care Alasdair. It seems you have no proper Logo for Macleod Finance. I designed one for you. There is no option here to send an attachment. If you are interested let me know how i can send the file to you. Maybe you like it, and its free!
Smoot Hawley was enacted after the crash of 1929. It didn’t cause the crash.
Excellent & enjoyable Interview .
Alasdair,
Lead May25 silver future on Comex has gone into backwardation in this sell off - can you explain why this happens and the significance of it being able to stay below spot for several trading sessions?
Thank you Alasdair.